A new report, published by Unicaja, revises downwards the Andalusian GDP for 2023, which will grow by 1.3% instead of 1.6%
Malaga is expected to once again take the lead in driving the Andalusian economy this year, with a growth rate of 2.2%. However, a new report published by Unicaja revises the projected GDP for Andalusia in 2023, indicating a growth rate of 1.3% instead of the previously estimated 1.6%.
Despite the overall slowdown in economic growth predicted by experts for this year, Malaga is projected to outperform other provinces in Andalusia by achieving a 2.2% increase in gross domestic product (GDP). While this growth rate is modest compared to the remarkable 7.7% growth experienced by the province in 2022, it is still higher than the regional average forecast of 1.3% for this year.
Malaga is expected to have the highest growth rate among all provinces in the region, surpassing the average by almost one percentage point and outpacing the second-best province, Seville, which is projected to grow by 2%. Following in descending order are Cadiz (1.3%), Granada (0.8%), Almeria (0.6%), Huelva (0.5%), Cordoba (0.3%), and Jaén (0.1%). These findings are revealed in the latest report on Economic Forecasts for Andalucía, prepared by Analistas Económicos de Andalucía and published by Unicaja Banco.
The study acknowledges the global slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous year, as well as the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, it also recognizes recent improvements in the economic outlook, prompting major international economic organizations to revise their projections.
For example, the OECD forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2023. Regarding inflation, the study warns that despite the moderation in energy prices, underlying inflation is expected to remain high based on price dynamics.
In terms of the Spanish economy, it experienced better-than-expected growth of 5.5% in 2022 as a whole, with a positive performance in the labor market. The latest available data for the first quarter of 2023 shows a quarter-on-quarter GDP change of 0.5%, supported by the external sector. Year-on-year, the GDP increased by 3.8%, with exports performing well, particularly in tourism services, and contributions from the construction and services sectors.
According to the latest projections from the Bank of Spain, the national GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2023, with growth estimated to exceed 2% in 2024.
In Andalucía, the GDP growth in 2022 was 5.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than in 2021. Malaga (7.7%), Cadiz (6.3%), and Almeria (5.6%) outperformed the regional average.
During the first quarter of this year, Andalusian GDP grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, surpassing the national average of 0.5%. This growth was driven by positive domestic demand, with a 1.3% increase in household spending, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the final quarter of 2022. Year-on-year growth was 3.6% (3.8% in Spain), bringing the GDP back to pre-pandemic levels. Job creation also showed significant dynamism, with a 3% increase in the number of social security contributors in April.
For the entire year, Andalucía's GDP is expected to grow by 1.3%, in line with Spain's forecast of 1.4%. Employment is projected to increase by an average of 0.8%, driven by the positive performance of the industrial and services sectors. Additionally, the number of unemployed individuals is expected to decline by 3.4%, bringing the average unemployment rate for the year to 18.4%."